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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The Bears defense has produced the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing 5.25 adjusted yards-per-carry.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 40.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Aaron Jones has been a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this season (37.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (59.6%).
  • Aaron Jones has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).

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