Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 20, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 130.4 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
Among all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 84th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 53.4% of the workload in his team's run game.
Aaron Jones's 76.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year represents a material boost in his running proficiency over last year's 61.0 rate.
With a terrific total of 5.36 adjusted yards per carry (83rd percentile), Aaron Jones ranks among the best pure rushers in the NFL this year.
With a remarkable rate of 3.55 yards after contact (83rd percentile), Aaron Jones ranks as one of the unyielding RBs in the league this year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to run on 37.1% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 52.6 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Lions defense owns the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering just 3.81 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Detroit's collection of safeties has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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