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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-141).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • This week, Aaron Jones is projected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 92nd percentile among running backs with 4.4 targets.
  • Aaron Jones's 18.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the NFL: 94th percentile for running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.2 per game on average).
  • Aaron Jones's 1.9 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a remarkable regression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 3.0 rate.
  • Aaron Jones's 75.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks an impressive decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 89.0% mark.
  • This year, the tough Detroit Lions defense has yielded a mere 78.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 8th-best rate in the league.

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