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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+122/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -156 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to garner 4.0 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Aaron Jones's 19.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 94th percentile for RBs.
  • The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.8%) to RBs this year (85.8%).
  • The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.
  • The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Aaron Jones's receiving performance has worsened this year, averaging just 1.9 adjusted catches compared to 3.0 last year.
  • Aaron Jones's 73.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a material diminishment in his receiving prowess over last season's 88.9% mark.

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