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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -170.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Vikings being a -5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.
  • The projections expect Aaron Jones to total 4.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by the projection model to call just 63.8 offensive plays in this game: the 11th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 51.5 plays per game.
  • Aaron Jones's receiving performance has diminished this year, totaling just 2.0 adjusted catches vs 3.0 last year.
  • Aaron Jones's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 88.8% to 70.9%.

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