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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -107.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • In this week's game, Aaron Jones is predicted by the predictive model to position himself in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.8 targets.
  • Aaron Jones's 21.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 96th percentile for running backs.
  • As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been awful this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.
  • Aaron Jones's 71.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a substantial regression in his receiving prowess over last year's 88.8% figure.

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