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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Vikings offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.57 seconds per play.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
  • In this week's game, Aaron Jones is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.6 targets.
  • Aaron Jones ranks in the 96th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a whopping 21.0 figure this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Aaron Jones's receiving performance has diminished this year, totaling a mere 1.8 adjusted receptions compared to 3.0 last year.
  • Aaron Jones's 64.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects an impressive diminishment in his receiving skills over last season's 88.9% figure.
  • When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Green Bay's safety corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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