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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to accumulate 4.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
  • Aaron Jones's 19.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 93rd percentile for running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
  • Aaron Jones's 1.6 adjusted catches per game this year represents a substantial regression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 3.0 mark.
  • Aaron Jones's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 88.8% to 66.0%.

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