Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-170/+140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accrue 5.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 14.6% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has been among the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 3.9 receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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