Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to total 3.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 13.8% this year, which ranks in the 94th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Aaron Jones has been among the leading RB receiving threats this year, averaging a terrific 3.5 receptions per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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