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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-114/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by our trusted projection set to call 65.1 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

The Falcons defense has been a well-known pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

The model projects Aaron Jones to earn 4.0 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.

With a top-tier 11.9% Target% (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Aaron Jones ranks as one of the RB receiving threats with the most usage in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Vikings are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan.

With a 51.0% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 4th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL has been the Vikings.

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Minnesota Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 56.0 per game on average).

Aaron Jones profiles as one of the bottom running backs in football at picking up extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 3rd percentile.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Falcons defense has surrendered the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing running backs: a puny 5.3 yards.

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