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Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to garner 4.0 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Aaron Jones's 19.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 94th percentile for RBs.

This year, the deficient New York Giants defense has surrendered a whopping 34.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 10th-worst in football.

The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.8%) to RBs this year (85.8%).

The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.

The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Aaron Jones has compiled significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (15.0) this season than he did last season (27.0).

Aaron Jones's 73.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a material diminishment in his receiving prowess over last season's 88.9% mark.

More Aaron Jones Player Props

Aaron Jones Receiving YardsPlayer Prop Week 16

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16