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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • In this week's game, Aaron Jones is predicted by the predictive model to position himself in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.8 targets.
  • Aaron Jones's 21.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 96th percentile for running backs.
  • The Commanders defense has been torched for the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (40.0) versus running backs this year.
  • The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown poor efficiency versus running backs this year, conceding 8.14 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.
  • Aaron Jones has compiled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).
  • Aaron Jones's 71.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a substantial regression in his receiving prowess over last year's 88.8% figure.
  • Aaron Jones's receiving efficiency has diminished this year, totaling just 5.50 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.79 mark last year.

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