My Account Log Out
 
 
Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-112/-112).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal approach.
  • The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
  • The Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (40.4 per game) this year.
  • The model projects Aaron Jones to notch 5.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run just 63.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (only 52.1 per game on average).
  • Aaron Jones has notched significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).
  • Aaron Jones's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 88.9% to 66.5%.
  • Aaron Jones's 5.5 adjusted yards per target this year reflects an impressive decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 7.8 rate.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™