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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Vikings offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.57 seconds per play.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
  • In this week's game, Aaron Jones is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.6 targets.
  • When it comes to air yards, Aaron Jones ranks in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, totaling an astounding 4.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Aaron Jones's 16.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year indicates a significant reduction in his receiving ability over last year's 27.0 mark.
  • Aaron Jones's 64.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects an impressive diminishment in his receiving skills over last season's 88.9% figure.
  • Aaron Jones's 5.7 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a remarkable drop-off in his receiving skills over last season's 7.8 rate.
  • Aaron Jones's ability to generate extra yardage has tailed off this year, accumulating just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.59 figure last year.
  • This year, the tough Packers defense has yielded the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a paltry 5.1 yards.

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