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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to accumulate 4.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
  • Aaron Jones has posted a whopping 2.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among running backs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
  • Aaron Jones's 17.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys an impressive diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last season's 27.0 mark.
  • Aaron Jones's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 88.8% to 66.0%.
  • Aaron Jones's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching a mere 6.67 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.79 rate last season.

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