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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-115/+103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

In this week's game, Aaron Jones is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.4 targets.

Aaron Jones has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 12.0% last year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

Aaron Jones has compiled a colossal 1.0 air yards per game last year: 82nd percentile among running backs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

Aaron Jones comes in as one of the top running backs in the pass game last year, averaging an impressive 27.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 57.5% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.

Minnesota's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.

Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 30.6 per game) last year.

When it comes to safeties getting after the quarterback, Chicago's collection of safeties has been tremendous last year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

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