Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 22, 2024 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.
The model projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This week, Aaron Jones is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.1 targets.

Favors Under

The Vikings have called the 8th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 56.5 plays per game.
Aaron Jones has posted a paltry -4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 5th percentile among RBs.
The Houston Texans linebackers grade out as the 8th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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