Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 22, 2024 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 27.85 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 10th-fastest in football (in a neutral context) at the moment.
Aaron Jones has been used more as a potential target this season (49.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (37.6%).
In this game, Aaron Jones is predicted by the predictive model to find himself in the 78th percentile among RBs with 3.5 targets.
Aaron Jones has put up a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among RBs. (This might not seem too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

Aaron Jones's ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this year, notching a mere 7.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.03 rate last year.
This year, the stout Seahawks defense has surrendered a paltry 80.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.
This year, the formidable Seahawks pass defense has given up the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing running backs: a paltry 6.9 YAC.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Seattle's safety corps has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

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