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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Aaron Jones has run more routes this year (49.0% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (37.6%).

This week, Aaron Jones is expected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.6 targets.

In regards to air yards, Aaron Jones ranks in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, totaling an impressive 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Vikings, who are heavily favored by 7 points.

The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Vikings have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 32.8 per game) this year.

Aaron Jones's talent in generating extra yardage have diminished this year, compiling just 7.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.03 figure last year.

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