Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 8, 2024 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.
The projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (35.6 per game) this year.
Aaron Jones has been used more as a potential target this year (49.9% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (37.6%).

Favors Under

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 55.8 per game on average).
Aaron Jones's ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this season, notching just 7.77 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 9.03 figure last season.
The Falcons pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus RBs this year, yielding 5.04 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
This year, the formidable Falcons pass defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing RBs: a measly 4.9 YAC.