Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 7:11 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.15 seconds per play.
In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 83rd percentile among RBs with 3.3 targets.
With a sizeable 11.5% Target Share (85th percentile) last year, Aaron Jones stands among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.
The Vikings O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Aaron Jones is positioned as one of the top RBs in the pass game last year, averaging a fantastic 22.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The Vikings have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
When talking about air yards, Aaron Jones grades out in the paltry 7th percentile among RBs last year, totaling just -4.0 per game.
Aaron Jones ranks as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, catching a mere 72.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 16th percentile.
Last year, the strong New York Giants defense has allowed a meager 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 4th-fewest in football.
The New York Giants safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league last year in covering receivers.