Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to notch 4.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 95th percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
Aaron Jones has accrued a puny -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 21st percentile among RBs.
The Detroit Lions defense has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game in football (just 22.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (79.6%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (79.6%).

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