My Account Log Out

reorder

Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -101 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.8% pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accrue 5.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among running backs.

Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 14.6% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Aaron Jones has been among the top pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a stellar 24.0 yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Aaron Jones has accumulated a mere -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 3rd percentile among RBs.

Aaron Jones's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating just 5.08 yards-per-target vs a 6.77 figure last season.

The Detroit Lions defense has yielded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 29.0) versus running backs this year.

More Aaron Jones Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™