Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accrue 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 13.2% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Aaron Jones has been among the leading running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 23.0 yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Aaron Jones has totaled a paltry -5.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 3rd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging a measly 5.49 yards-per-target vs a 6.77 figure last year.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.84 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.

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