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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+405/-871).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -835 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -871.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 12.9% this year, which ranks in the 84th percentile among RBs.

Aaron Jones's 20.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 89th percentile for RBs.

Aaron Jones ranks in the 99th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.43 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Aaron Jones has put up a paltry -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 6th percentile among RBs.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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