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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • Aaron Jones has been a much smaller part of his team's ground game this season (44.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (59.6%).
  • The Commanders defensive ends profile as the 9th-best DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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