My Account Log Out
 
 
Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-130/+127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 40.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Aaron Jones has been a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this season (37.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (59.6%).
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Chicago's LB corps has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™