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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 1

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-136/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

Minnesota's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.

The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to notch 11.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to run on 42.5% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack in this week's game (41.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (59.7% in games he has played).

As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Chicago's safety corps has been exceptional last year, projecting as the best in the NFL.

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