Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 20, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 130.4 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
Among all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 84th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 53.4% of the workload in his team's run game.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to run on 37.1% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 52.6 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Detroit's collection of safeties has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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