Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+125/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Aaron Jones has been a much smaller part of his team's run game this season (37.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (49.9%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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