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Zay Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-105), with an implied projection of 45.4 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 40.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Jones for a 6.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Raiders enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 63.8% of the time (#8 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Las Vegas to drop back to pass on 64.3% of their plays in this game (#3-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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As a unit, the Bengals cornerbacks rank #2 in pass coverage.Las Vegas's O-Line grades out as the #24-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Jones open.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Jones ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 56.1% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Jones ranks in the #51 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 57.8% of Las Vegas's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Jones ranks in the #55 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 11.8% of passes this season.Jones ranks in the #36 percentile and has put up 7.57 yards per target this season.Jones's 67.5% completion rate marks him in the #62 percentile among receivers.The Bengals's pass defense ranks #21-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 152 yards per game this season.The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 8.33 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #19-highest among NFL opponents.The Cincinnati Bengals rank #21-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.2%.As a unit, the Bengals safeties rank #19 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Las Vegas has run the #22-fastest paced offense this season.The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to run 60.9 plays in this matchup, the #12-most on the game slate.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jones to exceed his player prop total 50.3% of the time. He projects for 44.8 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$3.01 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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