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Zach Wilson Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints
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Zach Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 211.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 229.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 211.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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New York is a 5.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.New Orleans's defense has been #24-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.08 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.Saints defensive tackles have ranked #27 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Saints linebackers have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Wilson has passed for 187 yards per game this year, #31-best in the league.He's been the #35-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 57.0% clip.Efficiency-wise, Wilson has been #35 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.14 yards per target.The Jets project to run 60.2 plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.The Jets offensive line has given Zach Wilson 2.54 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York have faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#10.6%).The Saints have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.7% of their targets, ranking #9 in the NFL.The New Orleans Saints have had the #6-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints have had the #8-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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New York has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#16-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.The New York Jets have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 62.2% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 60.7% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Zach Wilson's offensive line has been #20 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The New Orleans Saints enter this game with the #20-best pass defense this season, allowing 258 yards per game through the air.The New Orleans Saints have had the #22-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Saints defensive ends have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box on 13.3% of their plays this season, #19-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 212.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.60 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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