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Zach Pascal Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
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Right now, Zach Pascal Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 20.5 (-105/-125), with an implied projection of 19.3 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -105.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Pascal ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 84.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Pascal ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 90.4% of Indianapolis's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Pascal ranks in the #68 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 15.2% of passes this season.The Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed 9.17 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #29-highest among NFL opponents.The Jacksonville Jaguars rank #32-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 75.3%.As a unit, the Jaguars cornerbacks rank #26 in pass coverage.Indianapolis has run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Pascal for a -4.7% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Pascal ranks in the #10 percentile and has put up 5.85 yards per target this season.Pascal's 55.3% completion rate marks him in the #11 percentile among receivers.In a neutral context, Indianapolis has run the #31-fastest paced offense this season.The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 61.4 plays in this matchup, the #26-most on the game slate.The Colts are a 14.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.3% of the time (#26 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Indianapolis to drop back to pass on 49.0% of their plays in this game (#32-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Jaguars's pass defense ranks #19-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 159 yards per game this season.As a unit, the Jaguars safeties rank #13 in pass coverage.Indianapolis's O-Line grades out as the #19-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Pascal open.Indianapolis's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.47 seconds on average this year (#20-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Colts have faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Pascal to exceed his player prop total 50.8% of the time. He projects for 21.1 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.92 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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