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Zach Pascal Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Zach Pascal Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 22.1 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Pascal ranks in the #92 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 86.6% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Pascal ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 91.5% of Indianapolis's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Pascal ranks in the #69 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 15.6% of passes this season.This year, the Colts have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.Indianapolis's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.Indianapolis has run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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Pascal ranks in the #11 percentile and has put up 5.92 yards per target this season.Pascal's 55.5% completion rate marks him in the #12 percentile among receivers.The Raiders's pass defense ranks #3-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 131 yards per game this season.The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 7.33 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #4-highest among NFL opponents.In a neutral context, Indianapolis has run the #31-fastest paced offense this season.The Colts are a 8.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.7% of the time (#24 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Indianapolis to drop back to pass on 54.7% of their plays in this game (#25-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Pascal for a -1.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Las Vegas Raiders rank #22-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.7%.As a unit, the Raiders cornerbacks rank #15 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Raiders safeties rank #16 in pass coverage.The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 62.4 plays in this matchup, the #21-most on the game slate.Indianapolis's O-Line grades out as the #21-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Pascal open.Indianapolis's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.47 seconds on average this year (#20-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Colts have faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Pascal to exceed his player prop total 61.3% of the time. He projects for 31.8 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $14.95. That makes its return on investment yield +12%.
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