| |
Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 22 - Super Bowl LVI
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 31.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -110.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
In terms of playing time, Jefferson ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 76.3% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Jefferson ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 85.7% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season.The weather forecast here calls for 1-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.1 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.2% of the time (#6 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 64.1% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #3-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Jefferson open.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Jefferson's 55.9% completion rate marks him in the #12 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Bengals cornerbacks rank #2 in pass coverage.The Rams enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
In terms of earning targets, Jefferson ranks in the #63 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 14.7% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Jefferson for a -2.5% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Jefferson ranks in the #36 percentile and has put up 7.61 yards per target this season.The Bengals's pass defense ranks #21-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 152 yards per game this season.The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 8.33 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #19-highest among NFL opponents.The Cincinnati Bengals rank #21-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.2%.As a unit, the Bengals safeties rank #19 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Jefferson to exceed his player prop total 52.1% of the time. He projects for 35.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.55 with a negative ROI of -1%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
