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Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - NFC Championship Game
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Jefferson ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 76.3% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Jefferson ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 85.7% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season.Los Angeles's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.The San Francisco 49ers rank #28-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.4%.As a unit, the 49ers cornerbacks rank #28 in pass coverage.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.2 plays in this matchup, the #4-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.2% of the time (#6 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 65.4% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #3-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Jefferson open.
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CONS:
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Jefferson's 55.9% completion rate marks him in the #12 percentile among receivers.The Rams enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of earning targets, Jefferson ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 14.7% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Jefferson for a -1.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Jefferson ranks in the #36 percentile and has put up 7.61 yards per target this season.The 49ers's pass defense ranks #16-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 146 yards per game this season.The San Francisco 49ers have allowed 8.55 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #22-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the 49ers safeties rank #14 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jefferson to exceed his player prop total 59.6% of the time. He projects for 41.3 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $15.20. That makes its return on investment yield +14%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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