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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams
Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 45.3 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -110.
  • Jefferson has been on the field for 79.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 84.5% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #79 percentile among wide receivers.
  • This offense passes the ball 66.1% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 63.3% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • Jefferson's offensive line has been #2 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • CONS:
  • Green Bay's defense has allowed 135 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#27-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #30-most yards per target (7.03) against the Packers this season.
  • The Packers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 57.2% of their targets this season, (#32-most in the league).
  • Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Rams have run play-action on 21.9% of their passes this year, #27-most in the NFL.

  • His target share this season has been 14.4% -- #65 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jefferson is projected for 1.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Green Bay Packers cornerbacks rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Los Angeles Rams have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Rams project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #20-most of the week.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.8%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.4% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.70 and with a negative ROI of -2%.

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