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Tyrod Taylor Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
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Tyrod Taylor Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 208.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 212.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 208.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.Houston is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 63.5% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Texans offensive line has given Tyrod Taylor 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston have faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#15.7%).The Indianapolis Colts have had the #27-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Colts defensive ends have ranked #23 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Taylor has passed for 183 yards per game this year, #32-best in the league.He's been the #29-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 62.8% clip.Efficiency-wise, Taylor has been #30 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.68 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 58.0% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL).Tyrod Taylor's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Colts defensive tackles have ranked #5 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Colts linebackers have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Houston has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Houston Texans have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Texans project to run 62.5 plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.The Indianapolis Colts enter this game with the #21-best pass defense this season, allowing 263 yards per game through the air.The Colts have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.3% of their targets, ranking #14 in the NFL.Indianapolis's defense has been #16-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.77 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #17-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #12-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box on 14.4% of their plays this season, #17-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 262.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 69.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $33.69. It's return on investment would yeild 29%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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