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Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 81.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 79.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Hill has been on the field for 78.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 82.3% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #77 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 27.6% -- #97 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Hill has been in the #76 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 71.0% completion rate.Kansas City has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chiefs project to run 66.5 plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 70.9% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 65.3% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Hill's offensive line has been #2 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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CONS:
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Los Angeles's defense has allowed 133 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#31-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #27-most yards per target (7.59) against the Chargers this season.Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.Kansas City is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City has faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.8%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hill is projected for -0.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #53 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.50 yards per target this season, ranking in the #58 percentile.The Chargers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.8% of their targets this season, (#20-most in the league).Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 88.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.03. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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