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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-115/-115).
  • Hill has been on the field for 78.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 82.3% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #77 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 28.0% -- #97 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Hill has been in the #74 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 70.1% completion rate.
  • Kansas City has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Chiefs project to run 66.6 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 71.1% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).
  • Hill's offensive line has been #1 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • CONS:
  • Las Vegas's defense has allowed 131 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#31-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #31-most yards per target (7.05) against the Raiders this season.
  • Kansas City is a 9.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City has faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.8%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hill is projected for -0.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #57 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.18 yards per target this season, ranking in the #51 percentile.
  • The Raiders have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.5% of their targets this season, (#18-most in the league).
  • Las Vegas Raiders cornerbacks rank as the #13 unit in pass coverage.
  • Las Vegas Raiders safeties rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.0% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 74.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.0% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.14 and with a negative ROI of -1%.

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