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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 79.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -115.
  • Hill has been on the field for 78.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #79 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 81.3% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 28.6% -- #98 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Hill has been in the #76 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 71.1% completion rate.
  • Kansas City has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense passes the ball 71.3% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 62.7% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Hill's offensive line has been #1 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • CONS:
  • The Broncos have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.9% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).
  • Kansas City is a 8.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City has faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.8%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hill is projected for 0.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.28 yards per target this season, ranking in the #52 percentile.
  • Denver's defense has allowed 162 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#13-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #20-most yards per target (8.00) against the Broncos this season.
  • Denver Broncos safeties rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Chiefs project to run 62.0 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 82.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.3% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.88 and with a negative ROI of -6%.

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