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Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
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Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 79.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Hill has been on the field for 78.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #79 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 81.3% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 28.6% -- #98 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Hill has been in the #76 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 71.1% completion rate.Kansas City has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 71.3% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 62.7% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Hill's offensive line has been #1 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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CONS:
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The Broncos have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.9% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).Kansas City is a 8.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City has faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.8%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hill is projected for 0.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.28 yards per target this season, ranking in the #52 percentile.Denver's defense has allowed 162 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#13-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #20-most yards per target (8.00) against the Broncos this season.Denver Broncos safeties rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.The Chiefs project to run 62.0 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 82.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.88 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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