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Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks
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Right now, Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 56.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Lockett ranks in the #94 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 87.0% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Lockett ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 92.8% of Seattle's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Lockett ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 24.3% of passes this season.Lockett ranks in the #84 percentile and has put up 9.40 yards per target this season.This year, the Seahawks have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Lockett's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Arizona Cardinals rank #27-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.4%.In a neutral context, Seattle has run the #3-fastest paced offense this season.The Seattle Seahawks are projected to run 64.5 plays in this matchup, the #8-most on the game slate.The Seahawks enter as a 5.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.6% of the time (#10 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Seattle to drop back to pass on 63.7% of their plays in this game (#9-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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The Cardinals's pass defense ranks #10-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 146 yards per game this season.Seattle's O-Line grades out as the #25-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Lockett open.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Seahawks have faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.2%).
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Lockett for a -0.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Lockett's 68.0% completion rate marks him in the #62 percentile among receivers.The Arizona Cardinals have allowed 7.94 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #13-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Cardinals cornerbacks rank #20 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Cardinals safeties rank #11 in pass coverage.Seattle's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.51 seconds on average this year (#22-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Seattle has run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Lockett to exceed his player prop total 65.4% of the time. He projects for 79.9 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $25.67. That makes its return on investment yield +22%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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