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Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears
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Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Lockett has been on the field for 87.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 93.0% of Seattle's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 25.4% -- #92 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.64 yards per target this season, ranking in the #86 percentile.Opposing wideouts have put up the #5-most yards per target (9.01) against the Bears this season.Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.Chicago Bears safeties rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Seahawks project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.7% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL).
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CONS:
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Seattle is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 52.1% of the time in this contest (#31 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Lockett's offensive line has been #26 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Seattle has faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.2%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Lockett is projected for 0.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #56 percentile among wide receivers.Lockett has been in the #66 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 67.8% completion rate.Chicago's defense has allowed 160 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#13-most in football).The Bears have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.1% of their targets this season, (#13-most in the league).The Seahawks offensive line has given the QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#22-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Seattle Seahawks have run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 59.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$7.01 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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