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Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - NFC Divisional Round Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 31.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Johnson for a 4.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Buccaneers have played in the #7-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Johnson's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.As a unit, the Rams safeties rank #24 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Tampa Bay has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to run 66.7 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.8% of the time (#1 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Tampa Bay to drop back to pass on 70.0% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tampa Bay's O-Line grades out as the #9-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Johnson open.
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CONS:
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Johnson ranks in the #24 percentile and has put up 7.25 yards per target this season.The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 7.39 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #4-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Rams cornerbacks rank #3 in pass coverage.The Buccaneers enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Johnson ranks in the #50 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 50.3% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Johnson ranks in the #44 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 51.3% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Johnson ranks in the #40 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 7.7% of passes this season.Johnson's 68.1% completion rate marks him in the #63 percentile among receivers.The Rams's pass defense ranks #14-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 144 yards per game this season.The Los Angeles Rams rank #13-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.1%.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Johnson to exceed his player prop total 51.0% of the time. He projects for 35.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.80 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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