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Tyler Johnson

Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 16.0 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -110.
  • Tampa Bay has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Falcons have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 70.6% of their targets this season, (#3-most in the league).
  • Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Buccaneers project to run 64.0 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 71.7% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 67.9% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Johnson's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Buccaneers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).

  • CONS:
  • Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.
  • Tampa Bay is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.

  • Johnson has been on the field for 44.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #43 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 43.9% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #39 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 6.8% -- #37 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for 0.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.15 yards per target this season, ranking in the #47 percentile.
  • Johnson has been in the #51 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.7% completion rate.
  • Atlanta's defense has allowed 160 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#16-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #17-most yards per target (8.39) against the Falcons this season.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 25.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.9% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $16.29. It's return on investment would yeild 14%.

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