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Tyler Huntley Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Right now, Tyler Huntley Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 202.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 226.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 202.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #1-best in the league, completing passes at a 71.0% clip.This year, the Ravens have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Baltimore Ravens are projected to run 64.5 plays in this matchup, the #7-most on the game slate.Baltimore's O-Line grades out as the #9-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Baltimore has run play-action on 36.3% of their passes this year, #2-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #23-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #30-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Steelers, they've stacked the box on 19.3% of their plays this season, #5-most in football.
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CONS:
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This year, at #32-best in the league, Huntley has passed for181 yards per game.In a neutral context, Baltimore has run the #24-fastest paced offense this season.The Ravens enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects Baltimore to drop back to pass on 50.6% of their plays in this game (#29-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Pittsburgh's defensive ends rank #5 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Pittsburgh's linebackers rank #6 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of efficiency, Huntley has been #25 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.91 yards per target.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.8% of the time (#12 in the NFL).Baltimore's offensive has kept pressure off Tyler Huntley for 2.43 seconds on average this year (#13-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Ravens have faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.5%).Pittsburgh's #12-ranked pass defense has allowed 235 passing yards per game this year.Pittsburgh has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.8% of their targets, which ranks them #11-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Pittsburgh's defense is #16-best. This is because they allowed 7.63 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #21-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Pittsburgh's defensive tackles rank #12 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Huntley to exceed his player prop total 39.0% of the time. He projects for 174.4 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $16.19. That makes its return on investment yield +14%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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