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Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 22 - Super Bowl LVI
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 42.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 37.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Boyd ranks in the #79 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 77.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Boyd ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 88.1% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Boyd ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 17.5% of passes this season.Boyd's 74.4% completion rate marks him in the #85 percentile among receivers.The weather forecast here calls for 1-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.As a unit, the Rams safeties rank #24 in pass coverage.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.The Bengals enter as a 4.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.4% of the time (#10 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Cincinnati to drop back to pass on 64.0% of their plays in this game (#2-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 7.39 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #4-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Rams cornerbacks rank #3 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.Cincinnati's O-Line grades out as the #23-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Boyd open.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Boyd for a -0.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Boyd ranks in the #66 percentile and has put up 8.66 yards per target this season.The Rams's pass defense ranks #14-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 144 yards per game this season.The Los Angeles Rams rank #13-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.1%.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Boyd to exceed his player prop total 57.4% of the time. He projects for 51.0 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $10.60. That makes its return on investment yield +10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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