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Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Boyd has been on the field for 72.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 86.6% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #83 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 18.3% -- #75 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Boyd has been in the #85 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 75.2% completion rate.Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the #26 unit in pass coverage.Cincinnati is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cincinnati has faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.5%).
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CONS:
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Cincinnati has played in the #21-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Broncos have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.3% of their targets this season, (#29-most in the league).The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bengals project to run 58.3 plays in this contest, the #32-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cincinnati Bengals have run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Boyd is projected for -0.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #41 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.55 yards per target this season, ranking in the #58 percentile.Denver's defense has allowed 160 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#15-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #22-most yards per target (7.88) against the Broncos this season.Denver Broncos safeties rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.2% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Boyd's offensive line has been #22 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bengals offensive line has given the QB 2.42 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#12-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 43.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.62 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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