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Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-125) with an implied projection of 37.4 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -125.
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PROS:
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Boyd has been on the field for 70.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 86.3% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #82 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 18.8% -- #77 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Boyd has been in the #79 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 74.2% completion rate.The Chargers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.5% of their targets this season, (#9-most in the league).Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the #26 unit in pass coverage.The Bengals project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cincinnati has faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.5%).
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CONS:
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Cincinnati has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Los Angeles's defense has allowed 134 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#29-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #25-most yards per target (7.79) against the Chargers this season.Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the #5 unit in pass coverage.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Cincinnati is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cincinnati Bengals have run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Boyd is projected for 0.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.85 yards per target this season, ranking in the #40 percentile.This offense passes the ball 60.4% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 57.4% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Boyd's offensive line has been #21 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bengals offensive line has given the QB 2.42 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#12-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 47.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $12.58. It's return on investment would yeild 11%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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